5-Minute Revenue Health Check You Should Do Every Weekly
If you ask a founder, “How much revenue are you expecting to generate next month?”
Their answer might be: "Somewhere between $3K and $15K."
That's not a forecast. That's a prayer.
If you can't predict your revenue, it’s hard to scale your business. Your cash flow decisions, hiring plans, and growth strategy all hinge on knowing what money is coming in and when.
Yet, a ton of early-stage startups are flying completely blind on revenue. They're building great products, gaining customers, and even closing deals, but they have zero visibility into what happens next month.
The good news? You don't need a finance team or expensive software to fix this. You need 5 minutes every week and a simple system.
Why Forecasting Matters
Before we jump into how to run an effective revenue check in order to forecast, let’s talk about the importance of forecasting in the first place. Forecasting isn't just about knowing numbers; it's about making smart decisions that determine whether your startup survives or thrives.
Here are some benefits of accurate forecasting:
Cash flow management becomes possible. When you know $15K is coming in next month versus hoping for "somewhere between $3K and $15K," you can make informed decisions about hiring, equipment purchases, or marketing spend.
Fundraising becomes strategic, not desperate. Investors want to see predictable growth, not hopes and dreams. When you can show them your pipeline and explain exactly how you'll hit next quarter's targets, you're raising from a position of strength.
You avoid the panic-hire, panic-fire cycle. As a founder, you don’t want to get in the habit of making hiring decisions based on last month's revenue. Good month = hire someone. Bad month = panic about runway. Forecasting enables you to make informed hiring decisions based on what you know and can predict is incoming, rather than what has just happened.
Your team gains confidence in your leadership. If you’re in charge of revenue production, you don’t want to constantly seem surprised by the business results. When you can confidently discuss what's ahead, your team trusts your strategic decisions.
You spot problems while you can still fix them. This might be my favorite benefit. A thin pipeline today means a revenue problem in 60-90 days. With forecasting, you see the issue coming and can course-correct. Without it, you're always reacting to problems that have already happened.
Revenue leaders forecasting don't just predict the future; they create it. They make deliberate decisions about where to invest time and money because they understand the likely outcomes.
Why Revenue Is So Hard To Predict
Many leaders treat revenue tracking like accounting, something you do after the money hits your bank account. This isn’t just a “founder issue”. It’s an issue that many revenue leaders run into.
It’s worth noting that revenue forecasting isn't accounting. It's sales intelligence.
Those who struggle with revenue predictability usually make these mistakes:
They confuse activity with pipeline. Sending 100 emails doesn't equal revenue. Having 20 "interested" prospects doesn't either. They count busy work as buying signals.
They don't clean their pipeline. That "hot lead" from three months ago, who's been "making a decision soon" isn't hot. It's dead. The longer you hold on to it, the longer your forecast is inflated.
They guess instead of track. When someone asks about next month's revenue, they scan their memory for who might close. That's not forecasting, it's wishful thinking.
They track everything or nothing. Some people obsess over 47 different metrics. Others track nothing at all. Both approaches fail because they miss the signal in the noise.
The result? Revenue surprises without a strong grasp on what is working in your process. Good months feel like luck. Bad months feel inevitable. And you're always one unexpected month away from panic.
The 5 Metrics That Matter
After working on and leading several revenue teams, I've identified the five metrics that give you 80% of the insight you need to predict revenue:
1. Pipeline Value by Stage
This isn’t just "total pipeline", but how much sits in each stage of your sales process. If 90% of your pipeline is in "initial contact" and only 10% is in "proposal sent," next month will be tough.
2. Pipeline Velocity
How fast deals move through your pipeline. When velocity decreases, you'll miss targets in 30-60 days.
3. Deal Age Distribution
How long have deals been sitting in each stage? Any deal older than 2x your average sales cycle is probably dead, even if the prospect hasn't told you yet.
4. Close Rate by Source
Your LinkedIn leads might close at 15%, while referrals close at 45%. Knowing this helps you forecast more accurately and focus your efforts.
5. Revenue Runway
Based on current pipeline and close rates, how many months of revenue do you have visibility into? Some businesses are able to see 60 - 90 days in advance.
These five metrics tell a story. They reveal not just how much revenue might come, but when, and from where.
The 5-Minute Weekly Revenue Health Check
If you’d like to feel confident about your revenue and forecasting, do this process each week. Set a recurring Monday morning reminder and work through these five steps:
Step 1: Update Deal Stages
Go through every deal in your pipeline and update its stage based on the last interaction. Be honest. If they haven't responded in two weeks, they're probably not as hot as you think. It’s okay to remove it from your pipeline. Don’t worry, the prospect won’t know.
Step 2: Clean Dead Deals
Which leads us to step 2. Remove any deal that's been in the same stage for longer than 2x your average sales cycle. Yes, this will hurt. Your pipeline will look smaller. But it will be accurate, and accuracy is what we're after.
Step 3: Calculate 30-Day Forecast
Multiply each deal's value by the close probability for that stage, then sum up everything likely to close in the next 30 days. This is your most likely revenue outcome.
Step 4: Identify Bottlenecks
Where are deals getting stuck? If you have 10 deals in "proposal sent" that have been there for three weeks, your bottleneck isn't lead generation; it's most likely follow-up.
Step 5: Plan Three Actions
Based on what you found, what are the three highest-impact activities you can do this week to put yourself in a stronger forecasting position? Focus on moving existing deals forward, not just generating new ones.
That's it. Five minutes. Five steps. Maximum clarity on your revenue trajectory.
Want help setting up revenue tracking systems for your startup? I work with early-stage founders to build predictable revenue growth through proven sales and go-to-market strategies. Feel free to book a free GTM consultation so we can discuss how to get your revenue on track.
